You have probably already heard the most common advice in this industry.
Stick with one thing and master it.
They tell you that on every traffic source, vertical or whatsoever guys are killing it.
This is indeed correct, but what are your chances to become one of them?
The guys killing it at the moment used the advantage of being an early adopter to build their empire.
By now the market has completely changed.
Breaking into a crowded traffic source or vertical is 10x harder then it was for the early adopters.
It makes little sense to compete in a declining or crowded market against sharks and experts if you’re not one of them.
When there are ten lemonade stands in a row, you will have a tough time selling lemonade.
However selling lemonade on a different spot, or being the only one selling ice cream is a different game…
Go where the crowd hasn’t arrived yet
When you build experience and infrastructure, don’t build it into a declining niche.
Rather build into a new and growing niche.
The work you do in a new niche will reap you rewards for years.
However, you need to catch trends and new niches early in the life cycle.
Let’s say a new trend has a life cycle of three years.
- The first year you’re killing it no matter what you do. Traffic is underpriced and you can make dozens of campaigns work without all too much work
- The second year becomes already way tougher. Traffic gets more expensive, you need to run good targeting and have a great offer to make good money
- By year three every dog and his owner is competing in the niche. Traffic prices are out of control and you need to be an wizard to still make good figures
With rising competition it becomes 10x harder to make good profits.
A handful of buyers can already change the market environment.
Under no circumstances do you want to be the last one jumping on the train.
Catch trends early, or don’t bother at all.
Use forums and mastermind groups as indicator.
If everybody talks about it, you’re late to the party.
Being an early adopter is more than enough
Being an inventor is rough gig.
It’s a long road to figure things out yourself.
Even if you get most things right, if the market is not ready yet you won’t make any money.
Being an early adopter is more than enough.
Let some brave guys figure things out and jump early on the trend.
Find the right people to follow and listen to.
Put your feets into a couple of emerging things and focus on the one thing that provides you immediate traction.
When i made big money, I was most of the time just early on a new thing.
When I started mobile everybody was focusing on display.
I got a tip from one of my account managers to look into pop traffic.
You could hardly find any posts or articles about mobile pop traffic.
Within 1-2 weeks I was killing it.
I got $$$ worth of traffic per hour on a single plattform for a single GEO.
Today the same targeting spends $50-100 per day.
The market changes fast.
GEOs,verticals and traffic sources are hot and then they cool down.
When things stop being hot accept it and move on.
Don’t be nostalgic.
Operate without emotions.
Switch some things up to stay competitive
Moving on can be a small or big change.
Small changes are enough when things just starting to get crowded.
- If a GEO becomes crowded, test some less crowded GEOs. Emerging markets can be highly profitable, even with low payout offers, if the population is big enough
- If everybody runs the same angel, test some new ones. The life cycle of an offer can sometimes be extended with an new angel that taps into a different demographic
- If your vertical is crowded, look for a new vertical. There are always new and emerging verticals out there. Look for verticals that are solving pressing pain points
- If your go to source becomes to competitive, search for a new traffic source. New traffic sources pop up every day. Being early on, you will get underpriced traffic. It’s easier to make an campaign work with an $2 CPM than a $4 CPM, if the traffic quality is roughly the same. Look for the sweetspot between cheap traffic and big enough inventory
However, if you cannot make anything work for several weeks you know its time to make a big change.
The party is over, you just need to find the next one.